Indicators Turn Negative 08-24-16

Over the past week, our indicators have, as a group, decidedly turned more negative. As you can see in our table below, three indicators now flash -2 while the rest, except for one, are at -1.

Our indicators now predict a negative bias in the near term, but it doesn’t mean the markets are about to crash. Read more about Indicators Turn Negative 08-24-16

Waiting Through the Minutes 08-17-16

The Fed released the minutes from its July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting today, revealing more details into the decision makers’ thought process.

The notes show that the majority of committee members want to wait for more convincing economic data to show that inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2-percent target before voting to raise the federal funds rate. Only a small minority felt that a rate hike was warranted in July.   Read more about Waiting Through the Minutes 08-17-16

Our New Rating System 08-10-16

Today we debut a numeric rating system that should help make the indicator signals a little easier to interpret for our readers. To make things simple, based on our proprietary indicator readings, we assign each indicator a rating ranging from -2 to +2.   

A “-2” rating would be a flat-out bearish signal that’s strong enough to warrant shorting via an option trade—for example, by buying a put. A “-1” rating is essentially a neutral/bearish rating. A “0” rating is neutral. Read more about Our New Rating System 08-10-16

A First Since April 08-03-16

Yesterday, for the first time since April, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled below $40 a barrel. According to the most recent available data, in the week ended July 29, the number of U.S. oil rigs in operation rose for the fifth-consecutive week. From a low of 330 in the week of June 24, the count has increased to 374, the highest reading since March. As oil prices recovered, some oil producers restarted idled rigs.  Read more about A First Since April 08-03-16

Fed Announcement Helps Our Option Trade 07-27-16

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision-making arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), concluded its two-day meeting today. Since there was very little chance that the Fed would vote to raise the federal funds rate at the meeting, its decision to hold the target range for said rate at 0.25 to 0.5 percent came as no surprise to anyone.

More interesting to observers: the tone of the policy statement, always closely scrutinized for hints of future action. Read more about Fed Announcement Helps Our Option Trade 07-27-16